The Point Guard Predicament

The status of the point guard position remains one of the more intriguing aspects of the 2009-2010 North Carolina basketball season. Ty Lawson, Bobby Frasor, and Quentin Thomas have had virtually exclusive run at this position for the last five seasons, and now it's time for major overhaul. Larry Drew was brought along, somewhat, last season as the reserve point guard. But essentially this team will have an untested starter and likely even an untested backup at the point guard position.

Roy Williams recently addressed the situation with a typically vague (and at this point in the off season, appropriate) response that was summarized as such by Scout.com:

“While Williams noted that rising sophomore Larry Drew was the only “natural” point guard on the squad, he also indicated that [Marcus] Ginyard and incoming freshmen Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland will all see time at the 1-spot.”

Even looking at this assertion, it's unlikely that a system driven, consistent lineup type coach like Roy Williams would ever play four different players significant minutes at the point guard position throughout a season. I believe the best way to interpret this statement is that Williams was referring to the idea of primary and secondary ball handlers, lumping both the point guard and shooting guard positions as general “ball handling” positions. So Roy Williams was not asserting that Leslie McDonald (who grades out as a more natural shooting guard with potential to play small forward) would ever be on the court as the “primary” ball handler (in other words the point guard position).

The other surprising suggestion is that Ginyard could see time at the point guard spot. Like McDonald is projected, Ginyard has spent almost his entire career at either the shooting guard or small forward positions. He had one brief, six game stint in 2008 when Ty Lawson was hurt and Quentin Thomas was gimpy where he played point guard. Averaging 8.8 minutes as the lead guard, Ginyard (who was also not 100% healthy) managed only a .83 assist to turnover ratio. Clearly this was an awkward, unnatural, and unanticipated situation, and was the only time in Ginyard's career that he has played point guard.

Dexter Strickland, on the other hand, was recruited specifically to play some point guard at UNC. When Strickland first became a top priority for UNC, it was when Roy Williams witness his brilliant point guard play at the Peach Jam (a top high school basketball all star tournament) in the summer of 2007. In fact, a big part of Roy Williams' pitch to Strickland was that his best chance to play in the NBA would be at the point guard position. For the class of 2009, many other point guards (such as John Wall) would've welcomed being recruited by Carolina, but Williams knew that he already had his help at the point guard spot with Strickland.

A lot of this discussion stems from a lack of confidence in Larry Drew II to run a high octane North Carolina offense. UNC fans, however, shouldn't be too concerned about Drew's erratic play his freshman year. No one expects Drew to be the next Tywon Lawson, but history has shown that basketball teams can have great success without a superstar point guard. What really troubles fans is that Drew might have similar deficiencies to past backup point guard Quentin Thomas. Thomas was plagued by unreliability, a lack of offensive development, and questionable decision making. But a comparison of their statistics reveals that a freshman Drew was a good step ahead of a freshman Thomas.

Drew played more minutes than Thomas his freshman year, though both were in a nearly identical situation of backing up a superstar point guard on a quest for a title. Thomas could not be relied upon in the NCAA tournament and was benched. Drew played. Drew had a higher (though not impressive) offensive rating than Thomas. Their assist rates were equivalent, and Drew had a much better turnover rate than Thomas' abysmal, nearly unrealistic knack for turning the ball over.

Of one thing in this article we can be certain: Larry Drew II will play significant minutes at point guard and no other position this coming season. After that, I think the only logical choice (and the UNC coaching staff is logical!) is to play Strickland as the backup. McDonald, the Roy Williams press conference indication aside, we can rule out. So Ginyard and Strickland are the only other candidates. Ginyard, I feel, would be done a disservice if he were asked to play out of position for his final season. He is not a point guard, has never practiced as a point guard, and has only played as one during desperate times of mass injury.

Those in favor of Ginyard seeing time at the point guard spot point to the assets of leadership and experience he would bring to the table. These attributes, while true, are outweighed by the value in getting our young guards more time, in preparation for future success. Without question this is an entirely new Tar Heel squad. The success of the season is unlikely to be measured by NCAA tournament achievements. What matters most is building towards the future. Having Marcus Ginyard take valuable, in game training time away from the young guns in order to possibly win another game here or there is simply irrational.

Thus, I predict UNC fans will be treated to heavy doses of Drew as the starting point guard and Strickland as the backup, unless Drew proves shaky and Strickland takes over the starting spot. They will be inconsistent with flashes of brilliance, making for a highly dramatic and enjoyable reloading season.

Inside Scoop on Harrison Barnes

The latest and greatest recruiting saga between Duke and UNC revolves around the consensus #1 player, overall, for the 2010 recruiting class: small forward Harrison Barnes. Our best source has provided some insider knowledge, of which as much as possible will be shared in this article. But first, a little info about Barnes should be laid out.

Harrison Barnes is known for his competitiveness, basketball IQ, leadership, and versatility. A lights out shooter and game changing scorer, Barnes is also committed to working hard on defense. He touts academics as vitally important in his school selection (and unlike most star high school basketball players, I am inclined to believe him). Though he has examined many universities and talked with all the top coaches, our source indicates that this has come down to a two horse race: Duke and Carolina.

For the longest time Barnes has been considered a Duke lean, or a Duke lock. The critical piece of evidence was when Barnes showed up at Cameron Indoor stadium for the last Duke/Carolina game. Not only did he attend the game, he sported a Duke t-shirt and allegedly “surprised” Coach Krzyzewski by not letting him know he was coming. All this, after the young man had been reluctant to show his hand to the media in any way.

On top of this smoking gun, others point to social evidence linking Barnes to Duke: he's teammates and friends with 2010 Duke commit Tyler Thornton, he plays an instrument and is generally studious, he stresses his academic future, he asserts he will not bolt for the NBA immediately.

So it's all over, right? Enter Roy Williams. Williams' first trip two days after winning the 2009 National Championship was Ames Iowa, to sit down with Harrison Barnes and his family. For the last several months, Williams (known for his relentless recruiting efforts) has made Barnes his number one priority. Though UNC is hot on other top small forward recruits CJ Leslie and Terrence Jones, neither sport a scholarship offer while Williams waits on Barnes.

Barnes is scheduled to visit Chapel Hill for the first time, attending the university basketball camp, followed by a general campus visit. Surely Williams will roll out the red carpet and pull out all the stops (it is rumored that he once served a player a meal at center court of the Dean Dome). Barnes, having not been on campus before, has the potential to be wowed by the experience. He will also be bringing at least his mother with him, and that brings us to the possible ace up Williams' sleeve.

Harrison's mother, Shirley Barnes, is a major player in his recruitment. The word from our source is that Mrs. Barnes was not impressed with the way the Duke players folded while playing UNC in that fateful game where everyone assumed Barnes would commit any day to the Blue Devils. She observed that the Carolina players stuck together and, above all, seemed to be enjoying themselves. The Duke players, on the other hand, hung their heads while Krzyzewski chewed them out viciously during a timeout. Reportedly Mrs. Barnes was also not enamored with the Cameron Crazies and the atmosphere they create.

Mrs. Barnes has been in contact with the recruiting staff at UNC and is apparently showing a great deal of interest. The Barnes family is intelligent and thorough, meaning the decision to go to either Duke or UNC will less likely be made based on emotions or goodwill toward individuals. The decision will be made based on what is best for Barnes.

Furthermore, our source says that Barnes wishes to graduate in three years and that the Duke coaching staff has assured him that will happen at their university. Roy Williams, not known for making promises to recruits, has not made the same offer as of yet. As far as academics, however, Barnes insists that he wants to go into business. UNC offers one of the top undergraduate business schools in the country. Duke does not have an undergraduate business program, though Barnes has recently stated that economics could work as well (a program that is offered at Duke). The undergraduate business school would seem to be a mark in UNC's favor.

There is no question, however, that Duke holds a strong position. Barnes will “stop by” in Durham after visiting Chapel Hill this week. Many interpret this as a dagger in the Tar Heels' hopes. It is possible, however, that the stop by is just a gesture towards the coaching staff that has been in contact with Barnes for so long. But one thing is clear: Roy Williams hasn't given up, and his link with Barnes' mother could prove decisive.

Our source was even optimistic about the recruitment, saying that if they had to make a call, they believe Barnes will be a Tar Heel.

Dex

Many people are worried about the point guard situation at Carolina for next year. We were spoiled last year with Tywon Lawson, and it was not necessary for Larry Drew II to play more than 10 minutes per game. Other than LDII the only person who has logged any minutes at the point is Marcus Ginyard, who only filled in briefly when we were absolutely ravaged with injuries two years ago. While Ginyard did an admirable job stepping up, his presence is needed much more on the wing (especially on defense, where he needs to guard our opponent's best wing player). Even with an All-American like Lawson, a team needs more than one point guard.

So who will bring up the ball for UNC next year when Drew needs his rest? The stellar recruiting class has no pure point guard this year (we do, however, have Kendall Marshall coming in next year). There is a "combo" guard by the name of Dexter Strickland, who has had quite an interesting high school career.

For Dexter's freshman and sophomore years, Corey Fisher (now playing at Villanova) was the point guard for St. Patrick High School in Elizabeth NJ, so Dex was left to play shooting guard. During those first two years, Dexter developed his shot and a reputation as a scorer. Not only could he shoot, but he was a slasher, able put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. A lot of times, shooting guards are like wide receivers, head cases who worry too much about how much they get the ball and what kinds of numbers they're putting up. Not Dexter. While he was not the focus of his team (laden with upperclassmen), Dex did whatever he could to win. He got a lot of rebounds for a guard and willingly took a smaller role to help the team. So many people have commented that his maturity goes well beyond his years. Although many teams showed interest (most notably Florida and Michigan State), Dexter claimed UNC as his dream school.

Dexter's father is 6'4" and his mother is 5'11", so he knew that he would never grow big enough to be a shooting guard in the NBA (he's currently listed at 6'3"). So the summer after his sophomore year, Dexter decided to develop his point guard skills. He went to the Steve Nash and LeBron camps to learn about playing point, and demonstrated his skills at the Peach Jam in the summer of '07. At this point, Roy Williams really started recruiting Strickland. Mrs. Strickland, like all mothers, it seems, loved Roy, which always helps in our recruiting. That summer, Roy decided to talk with Strickland about his role on the Tar Heels, were he to decide on attending college in Chapel Hill. Roy told Strickland that he would definitely play some point guard were he to come to Carolina. Certainly seeing how point guards like Raymond Felton, Jacque Vaughn, and Kirk Hinrich (who was actually a combo guard) developed under Roy had to make Dexter feel good about his recruitment. At this point, Dexter was thought of as the best point guard in his class and a top 10 player overall.

During his junior year, Dexter finally came down South to visit the campus. This was no ordinary visit. Dexter decided that he wanted his entire family to come down with him, so they rented an RV and came down as a family. They took in a football game, and obviously enjoyed their stay. Roy continued to court Strickland, feeling his playing style would fit in perfectly with his system. In fact, Dexter kept in touch with two of his close friends, Dominic Cheek and Kendall Marshall, and probably ended up helping Roy in his recruiting efforts (while Cheek ended up at Villanova, Marshall will be at Carolina in the fall of 2010).

This recruiting class is thought of as a top three class for this year (some still contend it is the best). So why is John Henson thought of as on another level of player than Dexter and everyone else? It started in the summer after Dexter's junior year. Strickland decided to forgo AAU play that summer and focus on increasing his point guard skills at camps and in his own workouts. Unfortunately, he hurt his hamstring at the beginning of the summer. While he could not work his body very much, he worked on the mental aspects of the game. The injury, combined with a lower exposure due to his absence at AAU, lowered his national rankings. He was still thought of as a top recruit, but he was not longer being called the best point guard in his class (you may have heard of a fellow named John Wall who has now claimed that distinction). In fact, many recruiting services began to categorize him as a shooting guard.

During his senior year, Dexter missed a few games due to the injury and recently recovered from a knee surgery. Last year, Dex worked on his defense, being part of a team, and really prides himself on his leadership ability. These are three things we love hearing about our recruits, especially the last one. Luckily, Marcus Ginyard, a guy who has shown immense leadership in his time at Carolina, will be back to help give this young team focus. Hopefully, he can help Dexter transition into the team leader role for his sophomore year.

Next year, Strickland's role on the team will be that of a "combo" guard. While Dexter will relieve LDII while he rests, there will definitely be time where Drew and Strickland will be on the court at the same time. Dexter seems to be back in good condition after his injuries and his slip in the ranking may have been a bit too far. Since he was not on the AAU circuit for a summer, he may have been a bit out of sight, out of mind for the people who come up with the high school rankings. Luckily for us, Dexter's skills could end up surprising unprepared opponents next year.

But we know better.

Big Wern

The Wear Twins: Lost in the Shuffle?

David and Travis Wear, identical twin brothers, are highly touted recruits that will join the UNC roster this coming season. The 6'10" versatile big men bros turned down offers from UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona to sign with the Tarheels. They're elite prospects. And yet when it's time for Late Night with Roy in October 2009 it's possible the Wear Twins might not even start in the Blue and White game – meaning they're likely past spot #10 in the depth chart.

UNC's team next year features these talented post players:

Deon Thompson (Sr)
Ed Davis (So)
Tyler Zeller (So)
John Henson (Fr)
David Wear (Fr)
Travis Wear (Fr)

Davis and Thompson have earned their starting spots and not many would argue this point. Zeller will be a year ahead and brings a unique and specific skillset to the game – the most important being three point shooting, which UNC will lack next year. If Henson is the phenom he's being hyped to be, he'll certainly steal plenty of time from the post (even if he can play some college small forward, which is no guarantee) and be ahead of the Wears.

Originally there was talk that David and Travis could play small forward in college. This possibility has been put to bed. They were recently quoted as saying, in summary, that they are aware their future will be spent in the paint. Their senior year was spent bulking up and honing their back to the basket moves. This, however, turns into one of the few angles that work in their favor.

The Wear brothers' dedication to size and strength makes them more physically imposing than Henson, Zeller, and maybe even Deon Thompson. UNC has relied on the bulldozer known as Tyler Hansbrough for the last four years, and even the powerful Ed Davis won't be able to replace all that muscle. Their sheer bulk and beef may earn minutes. Another factor working in their favor is that Roy Williams will almost certainly return to the super fast paced, rapid fire substitution pattern that he employed the last time he had way too many players.

This last point brings us to the greatest hope and salvation for the twins: Roy Williams develops players and doesn't let anyone of promise rot on the bench. With the certain departure of Deon Thompson, and the likely departure of Ed Davis, and the possible departure of Tyler Zeller, UNC will need to season the Wears as much as possible their freshmen years. This means early in the season they will see the court, I would argue even a few minutes in both halves. In close games, they're likely out. At the end of the season, they're likely out. But for every other possible opportunity Williams will play them, even at points where fans will groan.

But if this coming season is more about building towards the future than winning another title (which, though possible, would take quite an alignment of the stars), David and Travis Wear must gain experience. It won't be much, and it certainly will be less than the two Top 50 recruits would get almost anywhere else in the nation, but it will be something.

Brandan Wright's Lasting Impact on Carolina

The 6'10" athletic freak with a 7'3" wingspan left the University of North Carolina after just one season. The merits (and demerits) of these “one and done” type players is a source of consistent debate. Reflecting upon Wright's tenure at UNC brings back memories of the almost-was, the close-to, and the might've-been. UNC was a shot from the Final Four – as well as a shot from not finishing first in the ACC. An exciting, dynamic, and intriguing player, Wright's presence was always felt.

Wright was an extremely potent performer for his sole year: ACC tournament MVP, 65% field goal percentage, and some the best pre-Ed Davis shot blocking UNC had seen in years. The team finished first in the ACC regular season (albeit tied with Virginia and posting an unsatisfying 11-5 conference record), won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Elite 8 of the NCAA's. This last point, the NCAA tournament performance, is a source of much pain and suffering for Tar Heel fans. The embarrassing meltdown against Georgetown, combined with being a hair's breadth from a return to the Final Four, makes this one of the most devastating losses in UNC history. Some people look at that one game and decide the season was a failure. While a bit extreme and negative, it can't be denied that in the eyes of the media and the history books, Final Fours and National Championships are remembered and everything else is just another loss.

Had Wright been an instrumental part in earning UNC that Final Four there would be no question his stint at UNC was of major benefit (see Williams, Marvin). However, given that it didn't happen, other criteria must be judged to evaluate Wright's footprint.

The year after Wright's departure, the 2007-2008 season, saw UNC clearly struggle in the post. Did Wright scare away potential big men from joining the 07-08 roster? Almost certainly. Kevin Love turned down UNC at the last minute and potential playing time must've been a factor. Roy Williams didn't really recruit anyone else (11th hour attempts to woo Patrick Patterson and others didn't come close) until after Wright left.

With no one to replace Wright, Danny Green was asked to step in at the Power Forward position during crucial stretches. Deon Thompson was inconsistent offensively and Alex Stepheson wasn't even an option on the offensive end. Coach Williams being forced to use Green more and more was clear evidence that there was a deficiency. Would Thompson and Stepheson have been more productive players if Wright hadn't sucked up a great deal of playing time the year before? The question is likely yes, although no amount of extra PT would've brought either player to Wright's level. Still, the offensively explosive Deon Thompson that showed up in the 2008-2009 Championship run would've been that much closer to fruition had Wright not have been there.

Now, all is well in Tar Heel land: a Championship has been delivered and the bench is so loaded with post players it's comical. Wright didn't drag UNC down, nor did he elevate UNC to great heights. His time in Chapel Hill was positive for him individually: he was a lottery pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. For the team, he delivered minor (by Carolina standards) achievements for one year and disrupted the post rotation for the following year. Do the positives outweigh the negatives? That's too subjective a point to explore in the scope of this article.

However, an important conclusion can still be drawn based on this examination of Wright's career. Taking on potentially “one and done” type players is a positive gamble. Wright's period at UNC didn't work out perfectly, but in the long run the negatives were minimal and the potential positives were just out of reach. With one shot changed in the Georgetown game, Wright would've gotten a Final Four (and possibly a National Championship). Had Wright returned for a sophomore season, UNC would've had a similar chance at a Championship that they had this last title winning season.

Will Wright be remembered? Only by the most die hard Tar Heels. But he was so very, very close to collegiate greatness.

Strickland Recovering from Knee Surgery

Star combo guard recruit Dexter Strickland underwent knee surgery a month ago and is now reportedly back to 100%. The knee was scoped for a meniscus tear and fixed successfully. The injury, surgery, and recovery coming to light gives Tarheel fans a source of relief. The reason? Strickland‘s ranking, at one time the #1 ranked PG by several recruiting services, had taken a huge hit in the last season. But now everyone knows for certain what many suspected: Strickland was hampered by a nagging injury, causing him to not be his usual explosive, aggressive self.

Strickland is arguably the top recruit for UNC’s upcoming season. Now, many would instantly point to John Henson and say I’m a fool for writing that sentence. Here are my points, in brief: Henson is ranked highly due to his potential. Strickland, pre-injury, was ranked higher than Henson. Finally, Strickland’s position and skillset are far more needed on the team this year.

UNC is in dire need of ball handling and backcourt excellence after the early departures of Wayne Ellington and Tywon Lawson. Larry Drew will start at point guard, but he won’t play 40 minutes. The rest of the time will be filled by Strickland, who will play either exclusively at the PG position or share some time at SG depending on how good Leslie McDonald is. If Drew continues to be shaky, Strickland will absorb more and more of his playing time as the year goes on. He could possibly start midway through the season.

What does he bring to the table? Extreme athleticism. A positive attitude and work ethic. Height, strength, and ball handling. Everyone agrees he can jump out of the gym, take a game over, and be a leader. His greatest areas of need appear to be adding consistency to his jumpshot, decision making, and general point guard training.

Because of a sag in the rankings (due to injury) and the rise of Henson, Strickland comes in to the coming season undeservingly unheralded. Fans are going to get to know Strickland soon enough, though. And his performance next year may prove to determine how much success UNC attains in this reloading season.

Draft Measurements (Part 2)

The rest of the draft measurements have been released, including body fat, standing vertical, running vertical, 185 pound bench press, and some agility and quickness drills. Although there are plenty of players to pick on, and plenty of statistical surprises to exaggerate, I don’t want to suggest that these numbers have a lot of weight behind them in terms of ordering the prospects. They are merely some numbers that may or may not have any implications on the court when the cameras are rolling. While some correlations are too obvious to ignore, many of these stats could probably be chalked up to an off day.

What Stood Out?

• James Johnson did show that a portion of his heavy weight (257) is coming from extra fat, as he ranked 3rd highest with a body fat percentage of 12%.


• Wayne Ellington tested out to be very bouncy and strong. His max vertical of 38” and respectable 13 bench reps show that his physique may have more potential.
  


• Greivis Vasquez did not test well, not in anything. Not jumping high, not benching well (1 rep), and not showing much speed. His stock goes down after this.
  


• Two guys that have shored up their top 5 picks - Hill and Harden. Hill showed off enough jumping ability to compete with those NBA 7-footers who may have a few inches on him. Particularly explosive off 2 feet, he will be able to challenge the basket high above the rim in the league. Harden has tested well across the board on both days, showing size (222), athleticism (37" vertical), strength (17 reps) and letting no chinks in his armor show. By the time the 5th pick is made, they might both be gone.
  


• Gerald Henderson showed a great commitment to conditioning with the lowest body fat percentage at 4.4%. Surprisingly, he seemed flat in benching only 8 reps.The big surprise of the day for me was that Ellington graded out over Henderson in many categories.


• Blake Griffin redeemed himself with gaudy numbers in the bench (22) agility (10.95) and standing vertical (32"), showing a special explosion off 2 feet. Like Lawson, his compact shape and shorter arms are not a complete hindrance as they likely aid in his missile-esque package of power.
  


• Austin Daye and Taj Gibson were found toward the back of the list in most categories, showing that despite their great length, they might be a touch flat off the ground and a step slow.